I described my plan for income during retirement with a self invested pension last year. You can see what I wrote here:
Further Pension Musings
After a year, let's see how the cunning plan is going. The current investment split looks like this:
The pie chart at first glance looks virtually the same - but the percentage splits are slightly different. The SIPP is now a smaller percentage of the overall stash, with the other three pots all slightly increasing. This is exactly what I would expect to see. I started drawing down from the SIPP in September. This is providing the bulk of my income - topped up by dividends from the VCT and other investments. The ISA remains untouched, with dividends being reinvested.
Overall, the dividend income has more than covered my expenditure, with the excess going towards additional ISA contributions.
However, Covid-19 has happened. Before I retired, I tested my portfolio against a number of 'What if' scenarios. What if the dot com crash of 2000 occurred again? What if the financial crash of 2008 occurred again? What if the UK had a deep recession triggered by Brexit (or some other cause)? And so on. In each of them I was satisfied that the mix of investments I had would be OK overall. I did not consider a world wide pandemic that would have an economic impact across almost every industrial sector and every geography. I think it's fair to say that 12 months ago, no one could have predicted we'd be in the situation we're currently in.
This has impacted me in two ways.
First, the value of my stash has dropped considerably. From 17th January to 23rd March, the stash lost over a third of it's value. Since the 23rd March, stock prices have partially recovered, and as of today, I'm about 14% down from the pre-Covid valuation. But the valuation isn't something that I'm overly worried about. I explain why here:
Chickens and Investing
Second, lots of companies have stopped or suspended paying dividends. As an income investor, this is far more worrying and has a very real impact on me. Eleven companies I'm invested in have stopped dividends altogether, a further four have reduced their payouts and I anticipate that as results come out in the months ahead, more will follow. There's not much I can do about this. There is reason to be optimistic that this is temporary and there will be a resumption of profit and dividends as lock down restrictions lift. Many of the companies are still operating profitably and are simply being prudent at this time. On the other hand, some companies are sustaining real economic damage during this period and although they may resume dividends at some point, they may well be at a lower level. There are three things that mitigate my concern: 1) with lockdown, our expenditure has also dropped; 2) Linda is still working and my retirement planning was always that we would be able to afford for her to stop working too, so while she works we have a margin of safety; 3) my portfolio has little direct exposure to some of the most impacted companies (airlines, cruise ships, holidays, travel, restaurants).
I'm sure the year ahead has more surprises in store for us and I'll be paying close attention for potential investment ramifications.
The Virtual Portfolio update
Last year, I introduced a virtual portfolio, that mirrors my core investments. It illustrated how you could invest 100,000 pounds for long term income. This is what it looked like:
During the year the BMO MSCI UK Income Leaders fund shut down and in January the value of the stocks within the fund was returned to shareholders. The settlement price was 2644.57p a share giving me £10,578.29 to invest elsewhere. I decided to split the proceeds 50/50 between Edinburgh Investment Trust, an income focused fund, and Royal London Stirling Income, a commercial bond fund, giving me 867 shares in Edinburgh IT and 4366.5 units in Royal London.
The value of my portfolio didn't really move much, drifting slightly upwards towards the year end. Then, along with pretty much everything else, it dropped dramatically due to Covid-19 and has subsequently partially recovered. The graph below tracks the portfolio over the past 12 months:
It is worth noting that because I'm just plotting the month end valuations, a lot of market volatility has been removed. Specifically, you cannot see the high point in January or the low point in March.
There's been some further recovery in June and right now it looks like this:
Overall, in terms of capital preservation, I'm down 13%, but given the circumstances I'm OK with that.
The other aspect to consider is income. The portfolio as described above delivered £5,140.77 in dividends in the twelve months: 1st June 2019 to 31st May 2020. This was £291.83 more than predicted a year ago. The increase was driven by two things: 1) increased payouts from the two Vanguard funds, Phoenix and Merchants; 2) effect of the closing BMO after having received 3 out of 4 dividend payments for the year and buying investments that had only made 2 out of 4 payments for the year so far.
Looking ahead, if all seven investments were to pay the same dividends in the next year, as they did last year, the income would be £5,042.16. However, this is not going to happen. Both the Vanguard funds are tracker funds and the dividends are a direct reflection of the payments received from the funds investments. I know that many companies are in trouble and have stopped dividend payments. This will, for sure, impact the payments I receive from these two funds. I have absolutely no idea by how much, I will only know when the dividends come in. Phoenix Group looks pretty secure to me and I'm confident that won't be cut. Hendersons, Merchants and Edinburgh are all investment trusts with very long records of not having cut their dividends, even through previous stock market crashes and recessions. They have reserves which they build up during good years, which can be used to maintain the dividend during bad years. This is going to be a bad year, so the question is - will their reserves be enough? I don't know the answer to that - but if there is a cut, hopefully it will be a small one. Finally Royal London Stirling Bond fund - again, I don't really know the impact. The fund is invested in company bonds, so if those companies go bust the fund looses capital and income. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some impact to the dividend, but I wouldn't expect it to be too dramatic. A company can choose to stop paying dividends, but it still has to pay interest on the money it's borrowed.
What ever happens, the year ahead will certainly be interesting from an investing perspective. Will my investments perform well enough for me to continue in the manner to which I've grown accustomed or will I, next year, be looking for part time work at my local supermarket? I'll let you know.